War-torn Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a coup, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the election under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".