Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
